Thursday, March 5, 2009

Standing ‘Steel’ is the only option!

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The current steel production capacity cuts were necessary in the face of the ongoing slowdown across sectors...


The ghost of the American financial meltdown continues to haunt the global economy. And after some wait, the steel giants have received the bad news too, with the price of steel experiencing a free fall at the moment, having fallen by almost 40% from the peak value reached during the past two years. Worse, the prevailing recessionary conditions promise to push prices southwards, thereby raising questions on the future prospects of the 'cyclical' global steel industry.

Major Players like ArcelorMittal, Tata-Corus, Baosteel et al have decided to slash down their annual production volumes to counterbalance the current situation. "Even iron ore and coal exporters all across the globe are facing the heat as a number of steel producers have requested delays in ore shipments in light of the collapse in the world steel prices and lower forecasted production,” adds Matt Robinson, Economist, Moody's Economy.com. The current situation presents a gloomy picture when compared to the enthusiasm shown in the industry two years back. Various multi-million and multi-billion delas were struck and the demand of steel was rising by a healthy 5-6% y-o-y. Today, the change is nowhere close to being positive as Michael Englund, Principal Director and Chief Economist, Action Economics suggests, “Steel producers will need to adjust output for the global slowdown and we have yet to gauge the magnitude of the drop-back in global demand.” The Chinese steel producers are the worst affected as experts predict their annual steel production and consumption to drop by 50-60 million tonne in 2009 – a fall of 30%! The North American steel industry has also had its operating rate slashed to 78%, its lowest since December 2006. The tumbling stock prices of the steel giants (ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steelmaker's share price plunged by 19.4% ending at $27.20, after sliding to a new 12-month low of $27.05 on October 16, 2008) testifies their predicaments, much of which will be reflected in the next annual financial disclosure.

For now, the only reassurance to steel makers is that the 'supply-demand mismatch' won’t last forever, just like the desire to 'grow & build' never dies!


Ratan Lal Bhagat


For more articles, Click on IIPM Article.
Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).


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