Monday, July 13, 2009

Each region requires its own super sub-secretary of state to mobilise the coalitions

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So, George Mitchell is, in effect, “Super Sub-Secretary of State for Nurturing a Coherent Palestinian Authority and a Coherent Israeli Negotiating Position So That the Two Might One Day Be Able to Strike a Deal Again.” Holbrooke is “Super Sub-Secretary of State for Bringing Coherence to the Afghan and Pakistan Governments So That They Can One Day Be Internally Stable and United Against the Taliban and Al-Qaida.” And Dennis is “Super Sub-Secretary of State for Amassing Global Leverage on the Incomprehensibly Byzantine Iranian Government So That It Will Terminate Its Nuclear Weapons Program.”

Unlike Cold War, where the world was divided between East and West, and the Soviet Union could be counted on to aid; today the world is divided between “the regions of order” and “the regions of disorder,” that are big enough and disorderly enough that they each require their own super sub-secretary of state to manage the chaos and mobilise the coalitions. “The world today can be much better understood if you think of it from the perspective of regions and not states,” said Gen. Jim Jones, President Barack Obama’s national security adviser. And the regions of disorder are likely to multiply as the world’s economic crisis metastasizes.

“As we look at 2009, on every issue, with the single exception of Iraq, everything is worse,” said Ian Bremmer, co-author of “The Fat Tail,” about the biggest risks facing the world’s decision-makers. “Pakistan is worse. Afghanistan and Russia are worse. Emerging markets are worse. Everything big out there is worse, and some will be made even worse by the economic crisis.” There is a geopolitical storm coming, concluded Bremmer, “and it’s not priced into the market yet.”

Did anyone notice that the State Department issued a travel advisory for Mexico last week, warning that “Recent Mexican Army and police confrontations with drug cartels have resembled small-unit combat ... Large firefights have taken place in many towns and cities across Mexico ... During some of these incidents, US citizens have been trapped.” That is Mexico, not Pakistan!

“As the effects of the economic crisis spread and viable states become weak states and weak states become failed states, it is going to produce a series of geopolitical brush fires, if we are lucky, and real conflagrations, if we are not,” argued David Rothkopf, author of “Running the World,” a history of the National Security Council. “They will each demand the attention and resources of a government that already has limited bandwidth and an empty piggybank.”

No, Clinton doesn’t have too many super sub-secretaries. The truth is, she may not have enough.


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Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and
Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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