Friday, June 26, 2009

TSI’s Sharad Gupta investigates why the BJP succeeded in Karnataka and Chhattisgarh and failed elsewhere, spawning an unprecedented factional war

2,300 IIPM students get jobs

The party ain't over


BJP may not practice caste politics in states like UP and Bihar but the caste factor helped it win many seats in Karnataka. Lingayats are the dominant community in the middle and northern parts of the state and chief minister Yeddyurappa is the most popular leader of the community. BJP in Karnataka has become more a regional party headed by Yeddyurappa than a party controlled from its Delhi headquarter or by the Nagpur-based RSS bosses. Yeddyurappa was given a free hand in selecting the candidates. Lesson number two for the BJP: strong regional leaders still make a big difference.

But there is a much bigger lesson for BJP leaders even as they wallow in self pity and play pass the buck. And that lesson is very clear - it ain’t over till it is really over. Thanks to breathless and often hysterical media coverage, an average Indian might get the perception that the BJP is gradually disappearing from the political landscape of the country. Pundits are bending over backwards to write post mortems that read more like obituaries and dirges.

But the prescient reader will remember how similar stories were bandied about regarding the Congress from the time it lost the Lok Sabha elections in 1996 till the time it surprised everybody - including itself - in 2004! After the 1996 loss, the Congress was in a mess and internal squabbling, ego wars and divisiveness had become the party's hallmark. It was led by the veteran leader Sitaram Kesri, always better known as the party treasurer. Everybody thought the party was heading for extinction. And look at what has happened since then! It would be equally foolish to write off the BJP now just because it has suffered a humiliating defeat and appears rudderless and directionless. It was in a more life- threatening situation in 1984 when the party was reduced to a mere two seats in the 543-seat Lok Sabha. If it could recover from there, then anything is possible!

But making the possible probable will be a formidable challenge. There is no doubt that the era of Vajpayee and Advani is over. There is also no doubt that there will be a no holds barred war for control of the party among the next generation of leaders. There is no doubt that ‘leaks’ to the media will project the impression of a party in disarray. But succession wars always end and new leaders always take over. The Congress had to go through a Kesri phase before it painfully rebuilt itself. Who will be the BJP’s Kesri?


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