Friday, November 28, 2008

While Obama has mesmerised the world, his equation with India is still to be seen

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Indo-US ties: the NPT spectre that’s obama


India’s nuclear status underwent a radical change after the Nuclear Suppliers Group waiver in September 2008 and the signing of 123 Agreement with the US in October. With this, India becomes a de-facto member of the nuke club and will have to harmonise its positions accordingly.

Another immediate exigency is, what priority and weight Obama will give to nuclear non-proliferation. US policies under Bush were more India-friendly and this was evident in the early months of the Bush tenure in 2001 – when he rejected the CTBT (Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty) and the ABM (Anti-Ballistic Missile) as treaties – since he believed that they were not in the interest of US national security. Obama, on the other hand, has a more predictable Democratic position, a kind of nuclear non-proliferation zealotry. If Obama’s top advisers decide to make this an immediate and determined foreign/security policy, CTBT is likely to come back into focus. This will amount to pressure on India to sign the treaty, and then New Delhi would have to arrive at a quick decision. And, as India will have a new government before May 2009, this decision requires national consensus. My own long held view is that after the voluntary testing moratorium accepted by the Vajpayee-led NDA government in May 1998; this position can be converted into a legal obligation without any serious setback to national strategic security. Similarly, the FMCT (Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty) will also start though China may take more time to decide.

Obama’s support to global disarmament is congruent with the Indian position since the Nehru years. If Obama is serious about this goal, the India and US will have an area for truly historic and tectonic co-operation. On the other hand, if Obama advisers seek to interpret the July 2005 civilian nuclear co-operation agreement in an anti-Indian manner, that adversely impacts Indian sensitivities, then the relationship would be strained. But it must be added that there is nothing as of now to suggest that this potential exigency will become a reality.

In other two areas of concern to India – global terror and Pakistan (which are interlinked) – Obama’s statements need to be carefully monitored. Pakistan and Afghanistan are of high concern to him and he might reduce US military in Iraq and shift them to the Pak-Afghan theatre. Reportedly, Obama wants quick resolution of the Kashmir issue so that Pakistan troops can focus on its western borders. In this regard, Bill Clinton’s name has been mooted for special envoy. India has made it clear that Kashmir is a bilateral issue with Pakistan and an unwanted third party activism should be avoided. However, discreet facilitation that will lead to an abiding and consensual resolution of the Indo-Pak problem need not be rejected in a prickly manner by New Delhi. Hence, on Pakistan and the related terrorism issue, India ought to display the pragmatic flexibility and creative diplomacy that led to the success of July 2005.


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Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and
Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).


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