Monday, November 10, 2008

For all the right reasons & for all the wrong causes, Russia loves one thing most – headlines!

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Russia O’ Russia... why hast thou been forsaken?


The predictable Russian response drove Georgian forces out of South Ossetia, and Russia went on to conquer parts of Georgia, then partially withdrawing to the vicinity of South Ossetia. There were many casualties and atrocities. As is normal, the innocent suffered severely. In the background of the Caucasus tragedy lie two crucial issues. One is control over natural gas and oil pipelines from Azerbaijan to the West. Georgia was chosen by Bill Clinton to bypass Russia and Iran, also heavily militarised for the purpose. Hence Georgia is “a very major and strategic asset to us,” Zbigniew Brzezinski observes.

It is noteworthy that analysts are becoming less reticent in explaining real US motives in the region as pretexts of dire threats and liberation fade and it becomes more difficult to deflect Iraqi demands for withdrawal of the occupying army. Thus the editors of The Washington Post admonished Barack Obama for regarding Afghanistan as “the central front” for the United States, reminding him that Iraq “lies at the geopolitical centre of the Middle East and contains some of the world’s largest oil reserves,” and Afghanistan’s “strategic importance pales beside that of Iraq.” A welcome, if belated, recognition of reality about US invasion.

The second divisive issue in the Caucasus is expansion of NATO to the East. As the Soviet Union collapsed, Mikhail Gorbachev made a concession that was astonishing in the light of recent history and strategic realities: He agreed to allow a united Germany to join a hostile military alliance.

Gorbachev agreed to the concession on the basis of “assurances that NATO would not extend its jurisdiction to the east, ‘not one inch’ in (Secretary of State) Jim Baker’s exact words,” according to Jack Matlock, the US Ambassador to Russia in the crucial years 1987 to 1991. Clinton quickly reneged on that commitment, also dismissing Gorbachev’s effort to end the Cold War with cooperation among partners. And NATO rejected a Russian proposal for a nuclear-weapons-free-zone from the Arctic to the Black Sea, which would have “interfered with plans to extend NATO,” strategic analyst and former NATO planner Michael McGwire observes.

Gorbachev’s hopes were abandoned in favour of US triumphalism. Clinton’s steps were sharply escalated by Bush’s aggressive actions. Matlock writes that Russia might have tolerated incorporation of former Russian satellites into NATO if US “had not bombed Serbia and continued expanding. But, in the final analysis, ABM missiles in Poland, and the drive for Georgia and Ukraine in NATO crossed absolute red lines. The insistence on recognising Kosovo independence was sort of the very last straw. Putin had learned that concessions to US were not being reciprocated, but used to promote US dominance in the world. Once he had the strength to resist, he did so” in Georgia. There is much talk about a “new cold war” instigated by brutal Russian behaviour in Georgia. One cannot fail to be alarmed by new US naval contingents in the Black Sea – the counterpart would hardly be tolerated in the Gulf of Mexico – and other signs of confrontation. Efforts to expand NATO to Ukraine, now contemplated, could become extremely hazardous.

Nonetheless, a new Cold War seems unlikely. We should begin by knowing about the old Cold War. Fevered rhetoric aside, the Cold War was a tacit compact in which each contestant was free to resort to violence and subversion to control its own domains: for Russia, its Eastern neighbours; for the global superpower, most of the world. Human society might not survive a resurrection of anything like that.

An alternative is the Gorbachev vision rejected by Clinton and undermined by Bush. Sane advice along these lines has recently been given by former Israeli Foreign Minister and historian Shlomo ben-Ami: “Russia must seek genuine strategic partnership with US, and the latter must understand that, when excluded and despised, Russia can be a major global spoiler. Ignored and humiliated by US since the Cold War ended, Russia needs integration into a new global order that respects its interests as a resurgent power, not an anti-Western strategy of confrontation.”


Noam Chomsky


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Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and
Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).


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